Crabby Daddy's Commentary

Listen here, sweetheart, I'm takin' Pittsburgh -3.5. Florida State's runnin' game just got gutted like a flounder on the pier: leading rusher Ousmane Kromah and RB Quintrevion Wisner are both ruled out, and now the Noles gotta grind it out against Pitt's No. 2-ranked rush defense with their bench guys. That makes FSU one-dimensional, and a one-dimensional offense against a front like that is how you get stuck in the trap. Here's the market angle: the line's been movin' toward Pitt since this mornin', and about half the money is on the Panthers even though only about a third of the tickets are. That means the bigger bets are landin' on Pitt while the public leans the other way, and that move came AFTER word got out about Pitt's quarterback. The risk is right there in the open: Mason Heintschel is out, so Holden Geriner (4 TD, 2 INT) is under center, and a backup QB can cough up a turnover that swings a 3.5-point number. I'll take that risk, though, 'cause Pitt's defense doesn't need Geriner to be a hero, just to not fumble the catch of the day, and the Noles can't punish 'em on the ground. Conviction: standard play. The edge in the trenches and the money side line up, but the backup QB keeps me from hammerin' it.